The world has entered a crisis response mode!Foreign exchange US debt gold crude oil, who is the best hedge
On March 10, the three major US stock indexes opened significantly higher.The Dow Jones index opened higher by 2.52%, reported to 24453.00 points; the Nasdaq opened 33 higher.38%, reported to 8219.76 points; the S & P 500 index opened 32 higher.41%, reported to 2813.48 o’clock.One day in the Air Force, US stocks melted for the second time in history, and crude oil prices plummeted epicly.There is no doubt that the world has entered a crisis response mode. For investors, which assets have hedging value?Sauna, interviews with Yeenet, after collating a number of analysts and research reports, found that the consensus is the target investment value of medium- and long-term US debt, and it is recommended to short the US dollar; although many countries have adopted foreign exchange trading measures, the results have been insignificant.Non-US dollar currencies are expected to cool down. Although gold prices are not as good as expected, this year is expected to break the 1700 mark. Although crude oil has rebounded today, it is still a priority to do short hedges.Short-selling the US dollar, the US stock bubble, mid- and long-term U.S. debt are generally recommended under the influence of the global plunge, the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. debt are considered safe haven assets.But the current consensus is to short the US dollar, US stocks have entered a downward cycle, and mid- to long-term US debt has more investment value.On Tuesday (March 10), Beijing time, the Asian city dispatched in early trading, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly, once refreshing its intraday high to 95.43, the increase is about 0.35%, currently dropping to 95.Around 37.On Monday (March 9), the US dollar index plummeted, refreshing its lows since September 2018 to 94.63.The market expects that the Fed will cut interest rates to zero within the next month.”Yesterday’s decline in the US dollar index broke the important support level of 95. Later the city even has other factors that will not affect the dollar’s fall again.I have insisted on shorting the US dollar in the past two years, and the recent trend of the US dollar has also verified this judgment, “Zhao Xiangbin, chief strategist of BRICS Huitong, told reporters.He said that bearishness will become a trend in the future.At 23 o’clock on March 3, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve urgently announced a 50 basis point cut in interest rates and lowered the target range of the federal funds rate to 1% -1.25%.Zhao Xiangbin said that the Fed’s interest rate cut is very bad for the dollar.”What is the concept of 50 basis points?During the financial crisis, the United States cut interest rates by 75 basis points. For the 12 years from 2008 to this year, every time the Fed increased interest rates, the basis point for interest rate cuts was 25 basis points, which doubled this time.It shows that the Fed’s monetary policy has changed, from the previous tightening to easing, this change is a long-term trend.The interest rate cut cycle is bearish against the US dollar.”Zhao Xiangbin said.Bank of America (BofA) wrote on Monday (March 9) that when the disaster has passed, investors are advised to short the dollar through arbitrage trading within a month or two.According to forecasts, the US interest rate will be 100 basis points lower than before the outbreak of the health event. The market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates to zero interest rates by the end of the year.When all the dust is settled, the demand for ‘safe yield’ will rise, especially when the US interest rate drops significantly.Contrary to the US dollar index once falling below 95, the worries about the oil price war among the world’s largest oil exporters have caused a frenzy for the national debt market.On March 9, the US Treasury yield curve fell below 1% for the first time in history.The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to a record low of 0.318%, then rose back to 0.At 515%, it fell 19 basis points on that day, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell sharply by 59 basis points.US debt is divided into short-term, medium-term and long-term according to the cycle of 2-5 years, 10 years and 30 years.”I am optimistic about the investment value of U.S. debt. I believe that 10-year U.S. debt has a relatively ideal time period among all U.S. debt types.”Zhao Xiangbin said.Similarly, the chief analyst of CICC Securities clearly stated that the short-term U.S. Treasury yield may remain low, but while the average global debt market interest rate continues to decline, the yield of yield bond yields still has a high cost.The bond yield spread has already widened to 99% quantile level.The allocation power from home and abroad will continue to exert force. The 3-month long-term interest rate will restore downward space, and we adhere to the target range of 10-year national debt maturity yield 2.4%?2.The 6% judgment remains unchanged.The reason why US stocks are not optimistic as safe-haven assets is mainly due to their own overestimation.Chief market analyst of Founder Securities Zhao Wei said that the expected growth of US stocks has even been adjusted. In addition to the epidemic factors, the most important thing is its own bull market for more than a decade. The profit is extremely rich, and it is estimated that a bubble has appeared.The main internal factors of the obvious decline of Caimei stocks.At the same time, “Now US family assets are mainly concentrated in the stock market. If the stock market plummets, the US government will be under great pressure. The US government will do everything possible to stabilize the US stocks. After continuous changes, the US stocks are mainly likely to be weak.”Zhao Wei said.The euro and sterling bearish expectations are expected to cool the effects of the multi-country transitional foreign exchange intervention. The non-dollar foreign exchange market has been quite calm for the past two days.On Tuesday morning, the territories of countries such as Brazil and Chile stated that they would conduct foreign exchange intervention if necessary.As a result, Zhao Xiangbin analyzed and weighed that the internal returns of the US dollar decreased and other non-US currencies fell against the US dollar at the same time. Even if these countries intervene, it is difficult to change this trend. These actions have little impact on the market.The reason for the intervention is mainly to sanction the performance of the domestic currency in the market, and at the same time to beat the exchange rate to maintain the advantages of commodities.On Tuesday, the euro / dollar EUR / USD fell nearly 0 on the day.5%, now reported 1.1392.On Monday, the safe-haven currencies Japanese yen and Swiss franc (0.9316,0.0051, 0.55%) The big rise, due to a significant drop in risk, a 30% plunge in oil prices and a plunge in the stock market caused investors to panic, and the foreign exchange market was significantly volatile.The implied volatility of USD / JPY rose to an 11-year high of more than 18% in one month. USD / JPY (103.56,1.2900, 1.26%) fell to 101, the lowest in more than three years.20. In late trading, it fell by nearly 3% to 102.twenty three.The dollar fell 1 against the Swiss franc.3%, to 0.9280.Euro (1.1392, -0.0051, -0.45%) rose more than 1% against the US dollar.In response to the short-term trends of the euro, pound, and yen, Swissquote Bank wrote that the euro / dollar is at 1.Bullish above 1355 with trading strategy at 1.Bullish above 1355, with target positions looking towards 1.1460 and 1.1495.Or, at 1.Keep watching short below 1355, and see 1 in turn for the target position.1320 and 1.1280.The reason is 1.Bottom support near 1355 formed, or may bring temporary stabilization.GBP / USD is at 1.3035 is biased towards the bullish trend, and the target is looking towards 1.3160 and 1.3200.Or, at 1.Keep a bearish look below 3035 and look at 1 in turn at the target position.2990 and 1.In 2945.The reason is not to rule out the possibility of continued consolidation, but the degree should be limited.USD / JPY is at 103.Keep a bearish look below 60 and look at 101 in turn.50 and 100.50.Or, at 103.Bullish above 60 and target at 104 respectively.45 and 105.00.The reason is that the RSI indicator fell below the 30 level.Morgan Stanley released a research report on March 9 stating that the euro / dollar is temporarily trending, and the euro is still a financing currency, so it will be helped by low interest rates and low volatility.Europe ‘s highest government will adopt a more aggressive easing policy this month. It is believed that more significant fiscal expenditures will bring more capital inflows to Eurozone assets, thereby boosting the euro. Of course, this rate may be slower.However, on the 9th of March, the French agricultural credit bank said that the euro / dollar has risen sharply from the fair value level and has begun to trigger selling.The short-selling operation is currently underway, and the European extension of the policy meeting and other early responses to new coronary pneumonia will become important factors in recent transactions.In the long run, “Foreign exchange market, mostly non-US dollar currencies.That is the euro, pound sterling, yen.”Zhao Xiangbin said.He analyzed that under the background of the decline of the US dollar, the performance of the base currencies such as the euro, the pound sterling, and the yen has become stronger.But the growth range is mainly whether its own economy can support the growth of monetary value.At 10 a.m. Beijing time on Monday, the Australian dollar collapsed, and the Australian dollar’s intraday decline extended to 4.59%.Zhao Xiangbin reminded that the benchmark will be weaker in commodity currencies such as the base currency, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar.”The Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar have shown a relatively large decline in the commodity sector.However, there will be some opportunities for these trends. Some Canadian dollars will be affected by crude oil, and the rebound will be very strong. The overall trend is still optimistic.”Zhao Xiangbin said.Spot gold fell again but the price of gold is expected to break through 1700 this year. “The capital market is so volatile, why is gold still less than 1700?”As a” classic “safe-haven asset, gold’s recent performance fell short of expectations, which confuses investors.However, many analysts still said that gold can be invested.On the morning of March 10 in Asian markets, spot gold plunged again, and once dropped significantly from its intraday high by nearly $ 20.Suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar index, the euro / dollar fell below 1.14 mark, fell 0 within the day.43%.On Monday, the price of gold rose by 1 on the day.7%, the Air Force has touched the highest level since December 2012, to 1702.$ 70 / oz.However, the price of gold subsequently fell to the level of 1700 USD / JPY.Even Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler could n’t help but say, “The underperformance of gold is a bit surprising-we did hit the $ 1700 mark in early trading, but it has now come down and it seems that all assets are being sold.(Decline) It may be partly because there are notices of margin calls in other commodities or asset classes, which means liquidation in gold.”The reason why the price of gold fell from the $ 1,700 level it touched earlier, relevant analysts said, mainly because investors dumped gold to meet the margin call when the stock market and the energy market plummeted, which overshadowed the need for gold to hedge.”Gold has not gone up in recent months, and its value should not be judged by one-day quotations.”Zhao Xiangbin said.He believes that in addition to the change in the US dollar, the increase in the price of gold also includes an increase in ETF holdings. At the same time, from the supply and supply, the transformation of global mineral gold into the past has passed, and it will also support the growth of gold value.From the perspective of the market outlook, Zhao Xiangbin said that from the end of March to the second quarter, there is a trend of gold falling and adjusting.But this year, gold has a chance to break through 1,700 and even reach 1,800.The price of gold will not drop significantly, or even fall to 1600.Similarly, Song Xiao, an expert in Haitong Securities, said that gold prices are expected to continue to grow this year.He said that in the medium term, whether gold prices will continue to grow and whether economic fundamentals will continue to deteriorate.At present, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is gradually deepening.As a result, panic sentiment caused the global stock market to plummet, or destroyed the balance sheets of residents and businesses and caused a sharp drop in demand.At the same time, the continued spread of the epidemic may distort global supply chains, causing global trade activities to be thwarted again.If the global economy has obvious downward pressure due to the outbreak, it will mainly expand or adopt further loose monetary policy, which will stimulate the demand for gold’s medium-term preservation.”From the perspective of the upstream period, under the low interest rate environment, gold prices are in a long-term moderate upward range.The aging population and slow technological progress have led to a lack of endogenous power for economic growth.In the face of economic weakness, countries gradually adopted loose monetary policies to stimulate, resulting in most of the increased interest rates at historically low levels, so demand for the preservation of gold has always existed.However, at present, there is limited room for further sustained high downward interest rates in various countries, so there is a basis for long-term growth of gold prices, but the long-term growth rate is within a moderate range.”Song Xiao said.Crude oil recovery still needs fundamental support to be cautious to wait and see and to do short hedging is still the preferred option on March 10, the oil price market has plunged again.At 11 o’clock Beijing time on Tuesday, Brent crude oil rose 10% to 36 on the day.80 USD / barrel.According to Jinlianchuang’s estimates, as of the fifth working day of March 10, the average price of the reference crude oil was 45.79 USD / barrel, the change is sustainable-14.79%, the corresponding gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 600 yuan / ton.A day ago, international crude oil experienced an epic plunge.Brent crude oil futures fell 31% (approximately US $ 14 / bbl) in just a few seconds after the opening of the Asian trading schedule, reaching a minimum of 31.02 US dollars / barrel, suffered the most violent selling ever.This vertical one-day decline in the intraday period was only seen during the last Iran-Iraq war (January 1991), 29 years from now.Is crude oil price expected to rebound?For now, it may not be short-term.”For the current international crude oil market, cautious wait-and-see and make short hedges are still the preferred strategy, and we need to continue to pay attention to more statements from Saudi Arabia and Russia against the” price war “and the current unexpected damage to productionWhether the first-class OPEC oil-producing countries will see a turnaround.”Jinlianchuang analyst crude oil analyst Wang Jing told reporters.”.Longzhong Information Analysis said that this sharp plunge in crude oil was a concentrated release of bad news in a short period of time. This kind of plunge has accumulated a cumulative profit in a short period of time. Once the bad news is alleviated, the excessive decline will be very largeIt will be fixed soon.The possible increase in Brent oil prices below $ 30 or even $ 20.First, after falling below $ 30, oil prices should rebound.However, due to the uncertainty of the global epidemic, oil prices are still under pressure.Huang Lili, chief analyst of CITIC Securities’ petrochemical industry, said oil prices still need to wait for signals of fundamental improvement.On March 6, the OPEC + meeting negotiations broke down, and on the 7th, Saudi Arabia opened a price war, which led to a panic decline in international oil prices and returned to the bottom range near $ 30 per barrel.As oil-producing countries are generally less able to withstand low oil prices, under the simple assumption that the overseas epidemic will peak and improve gradually in 3-4 months, we expect the supply side to expect substantial improvements in the middle and late 5 months at the same timeEnter the recovery cycle.In the current environment, it is hard to tell the bottom. How low can Brent fall?Goldman Sachs believes that OPEC and Russia have started an oil price war, which may push crude oil down to the $ 20 range.The price war completely changed the outlook for the oil and gas market. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for the second and third quarters to US $ 30 per barrel.The outlook is even worse than when the last price war started in October 2014, because public health events are still causing a sharp drop in oil demand.FGE believes that if the price of crude oil falls to more than 20 US dollars, Russia will make a compromise within three months; but if the price remains at more than 40 US dollars, it may take up to a year for Russia to compromise.Russia can tolerate an oil price of US $ 40 / barrel, but it cannot tolerate more than US $ 20; prices below US $ 50 / barrel will cause serious harm to OPEC, and each will have a profound incentive to compromise.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Shuxin editor Li Weijia Wang Yu proofreading Chen Diyan

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